and debt ceiling debate. it's come down markedly, 20.4%. that's the low as long as we've been asking this question and one of the big edrops we've seen. it comes in the next line as growth forecasts are rising. this the tail of the tape of the gdp forecast of our panelist. 52 responded this time around. you can see we started in march a year ago here. 2.74%. it's come down, down, down. it just shot up for the first time. not a big jump from 1.9 to 2.08. where are we for 2014, our first look, 2.56 growth a good trend, a number that could bring down the unemployment rate, although by a little bit. moving on, i want to show you two views of the economy from people who responded to our survey. bob bower says there's a decent chance that u.s. economy will get up a head of steam sometime in the second half and above trend growth early in 2014. head winds are fading and pent-up demand is surfacing. we adopt want to leave you with the good feeling. if congress doesn't solve fiscal problems, the economic signel will end with sharp dollar drop, inflation, interest rate rise and deficit surge.